In Fidelity’s 2025 Look Ahead report, analyst Matt Hogan argues that nations can derive significant strategic advantages from Bitcoin. According to Hogan, the risks of ignoring Bitcoin far outweigh those of embracing it—even discreetly.
Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: A Strategic Approach
Hogan predicts that nations seeking to add Bitcoin to their reserves will likely do so quietly. The rationale is simple: public announcements could drive prices up, triggering a domino effect as other countries follow suit, thus inflating Bitcoin’s value.
This approach aligns with the broader geopolitical and economic game theory surrounding Bitcoin. As digital currency increasingly influences global finance, the path to adoption is expected to remain sensitive and complex.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Open the Door to Wider Adoption
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 marked a turning point for institutional investors. Pension funds and professional asset managers have begun taking positions through these regulated products, setting a precedent that could inspire sovereign nations to follow suit.
Fidelity envisions 2025 as a pivotal year when countries, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds seriously consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolios. The combination of regulated investment options and growing liquidity makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive as a strategic asset.
Examples of Bitcoin in National Reserves
Although many nations hold Bitcoin via confiscations, only a few have officially incorporated it into their reserves:
1. United States
The U.S. government holds approximately 198,109 BTC, primarily from confiscations like the Silk Road case. While the U.S. periodically sells parts of these holdings, current laws prevent Bitcoin from being formally designated as a national reserve asset.
2. El Salvador
El Salvador has taken a groundbreaking step by making Bitcoin legal tender and building a strategic reserve. The country’s holdings have appreciated significantly with recent price surges, potentially inspiring other nations to follow its lead.
3. Bhutan
Bhutan employs a unique approach by using hydropower to mine Bitcoin. The nation recently announced that Gelephu Mindfulness City will establish a reserve fund investing in Bitcoin, Ether, and BNB. This initiative aims to leverage blockchains with high liquidity to minimize market impact during transactions.
Will the U.S. Create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?
The idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) in the U.S. remains speculative. President Donald Trump has proposed creating such a reserve. Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the Bitcoin Act, which could pave the way for formal adoption.
However, the likelihood of these developments is uncertain. Trump’s promises often face skepticism, and the Bitcoin Act requires legislative approval. On Polymarket, users estimate only a 27% chance that Trump will establish a reserve within his first 100 days.
Should the U.S. officially add Bitcoin to its reserves, it could compel other nations to follow suit, given the risk of being left behind in a world where Bitcoin becomes a strategic asset.
Bitcoin as a Geopolitical Battleground
Fidelity anticipates that countries will increasingly incorporate Bitcoin into their reserves, albeit initially discreetly. Institutional adoption, coupled with success stories from nations like El Salvador and Bhutan, amplifies Bitcoin’s allure.
The key question is when major players like the U.S. will decide to formally embrace Bitcoin. Once that happens, the price is likely to skyrocket, forcing smaller nations to act quickly to avoid falling behind in the emerging global financial order.
Explore more about buying Bitcoin or read our free Bitcoin guide to stay informed.
