Bitcoin is testing the critical $106,500 resistance after a healthy correction. With momentum turning bullish and the longer-term uptrend intact, a breakout could send BTC into price discovery, but bears are lurking if rejection follows.
Technical Overview
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad rising channel, respecting both its support and resistance levels with remarkable consistency.
Recent Correction: Textbook Bullish Retest
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Price retraced toward the previous all-time high zone (~$74,000), aligning with a common bullish principle: resistance turns into support.
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This pullback briefly pushed BTC below the 21 and 34-week EMAs, but — as in two previous corrections (highlighted in green) — the moving averages never crossed bearishly. This avoidance of a “death cross” keeps the bullish trend structure intact.
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The price has since rebounded sharply, regaining both EMAs with conviction.
Indicators Confirm Momentum Shift
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RSI bounced precisely around the 45 level, just as it did in the last two corrections, forming a long-term bullish RSI support line (green arrows).
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The MACD histogram has turned positive again, with a bullish crossover above the zero line — another recurring pattern from earlier trend continuations.
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These indicator behaviors strongly mirror prior bullish continuation setups, suggesting a structurally strong market.
Key Resistance in Play
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BTC is now retesting the horizontal resistance at $106,500, its current cycle high.
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A clean weekly close above this level would likely trigger momentum-driven buying and sending BTC into new all-time highs.
Bullish Scenario
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A breakout above $106,500 with volume would likely target psychological round numbers like $115,000, $120,000 or even much higher. The upper band of the rising green channel is currently around $160,000.
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Confirming signals would include RSI pushing above 70 and MACD widening to the upside, both indicating strong momentum and trend resumption.
Bearish Scenario
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If BTC fails to break above $106,500, we could see a short-term pullback toward $95,000 or even a retest of the EMAs around $90,000.
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A weekly close back below the EMAs would raise red flags, especially if RSI breaks below 45 — invalidating the previously reliable bounce zone.
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A larger correction could then target $74,000, the last major support, again.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has bounced exactly where bulls needed it to, showing strong technical symmetry with past corrections. The macro trend remains bullish, and all eyes are now on the $106,500 resistance level.
