Let’s take a look at the bitcoin price prediction from different models.
The price of Bitcoin surged by about 50% in February, leaving many wondering if we will witness strong rallies once again, reminiscent of the past.
Bitcoin’s price is approaching the peak set during the 2021 bull run, around $69,000. If history repeats itself, closing above this level could signal further upward movement.
For instance, in early 2021, Bitcoin surpassed the 2017 peak of around $20,000, tripling its value in just a few months. By early March 2021, Bitcoin’s price had exceeded $60,000.
Retail Frenzy
Breaking past the previous peak of a major bull run always garners significant media attention, attracting new participants eager to capitalize on the surge. The influx of these retail investors swiftly drives prices higher.
ETFs and Bitcoin Halving
This year, spot Bitcoin ETFs also play a crucial role, attracting significant capital inflows and adding to buying pressure. Additionally, the halving event is approaching, which will cut the daily production of new Bitcoins in half. This supply shock is expected to increase scarcity, typically leading to upward price pressure.
Analyst Predictions
Several analysts attempt to predict Bitcoin’s price. Let’s consider insights shared by two Dutch analysts on Twitter or X.
New High After the Halving?
The renowned Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model developed by PlanB predicts a new high after the halving. Between 2024 and 2028, the model calculates an average Bitcoin price of $532,000.
However, caution is advised. For example, in 2021, PlanB predicted a Bitcoin price surpassing $100,000, which did not materialize.
PlanB acknowledges that the bull market has begun and the accumulation phase is over. “If history repeats itself, we will now experience ten months of FOMO with significant price increases and several corrections of up to -30%,” he states.
Or Before the Halving?
Gert van Lagen, another Dutch analyst popular on Twitter or X, analyzes Bitcoin using the Elliott Wave theory. According to his analysis, a parabolic rise is imminent, possibly peaking before the halving. He sets a price target of over $200,000, followed by a dramatic crash.
It’s essential to approach these predictions with caution, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by various factors. Nevertheless, the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 remains palpable among investors and analysts alike.
Four-Year Cycle
The halvings also seem to be responsible for a four-year cycle in Bitcoin. The price reaches a peak, corrects for a year, then recovers, ultimately transitioning into a euphoric period.
This cycle predicts a new peak for Bitcoin in December 2025, followed by the onset of a new crypto winter, which will likely see a new bottom price around December 2026.
Let’s take a look at the graph below, where cycle peaks and bottoms are represented by the vertical green and red lines. We observe a Bitcoin bottom price in December 2015, followed by a recovery and a rise to a peak price in December 2017. Subsequently, the crypto winter begins, lasting for approximately a year. Prices bottom out around December 2018/January 2019, roughly four years after the previous bottom in 2015.
In 2020, the recovery and rise begin again, peaking in November 2021, approximately four years after the previous cycle peak in December 2017.
Once again, we see a crypto winter lasting a year, reaching a bottom price around December 2022, again, four years after the previous bottom price in December 2018.
This cycle predicts a new peak around December 2025 and a new bottom around December 2026.
In summary:
Bitcoin Peaks:
- December 2013
- December 2017
- November 2021
- December 2025 (expected)
Bitcoin Bottoms:
- December 2014
- December 2018 (1 year after peak)
- December 2022
- December 2026 (expected)
Caution with Predictions
During a bull run, it’s common for extremely high price targets to be set, as euphoria prevails. People repeatedly believe that this time will be different and that Bitcoin will continue to rise indefinitely. However, speculative bubbles inevitably burst, as has happened repeatedly in Bitcoin’s history. The air is then let out, and the price corrects to lower levels.
It seems that the Bitcoin price could continue to rise in 2024, albeit with the usual ups and downs inherent in the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it’s wise to take profits regularly.
It’s important to understand that investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies carries risks, and it’s wise to do your own research and seek financial advice before making decisions based on price predictions.
