Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing an important signal that has historically marked strong reversals. Price has fallen below both the 21-week and 34-week EMAs, but without a bearish crossover between them. Additionally, the RSI is bouncing around the key 45 level, where Bitcoin found support multiple times in the past.
Meanwhile, MACD has cooled off dramatically after reaching extreme highs when BTC was above $100K, potentially setting the stage for a reset.
At the same time, sentiment remains weak, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 32 (“Fear”), suggesting that many traders are uncertain about the next move.
Key Observations from the Chart:
✅ Three previous dips (circled in green) followed a similar pattern: a sharp decline below the EMAs, without a full bearish crossover, leading to a recovery.
✅ RSI bounced off the 45 level in prior corrections, leading to a continuation of the uptrend. A breakdown below this level would signal deeper weakness.
✅ MACD has reset significantly, leaving room for momentum to turn bullish again.
✅ The ascending channel remains intact, with Bitcoin still trading within the broader bullish structure.
Bullish Scenario: Rebound from Fear and Continuation Higher
- If BTC reclaims the 21-week EMA (~$88K), it would signal strength and a possible retest of the $91K resistance.
- A sustained move above $91K would open the door for another test of $100K and higher, continuing the long-term uptrend.
- MACD stabilization and an RSI move back above 50 would confirm bullish momentum returning.
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown Below Key Support
- If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the EMAs and loses the $76K-$71K support zone, a deeper correction could follow.
- RSI breaking below 40 would indicate bearish pressure increasing.
- Downside targets: $67K, then major support near $61K, which aligns with previous key levels.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is at a critical inflection point, historically where strong reversals have occurred. If bulls step in, BTC could be setting up for another push higher. If support breaks, a deeper correction is likely before continuation. This is a moment where patience is key. Watch the EMAs and RSI closely to gauge the next big move.
