After a strong bounce from the return line of the red declining channel, Bitcoin’s recovery hit resistance at the 34-day EMA and the upper boundary of the channel. The price was rejected and is now retracing, currently sitting near the 50% Fibonacci level of the move from $76,615 to $88,750.
The big question now: Is this a healthy correction that will form a higher low, or is Bitcoin resuming its downtrend toward new lows?
The Fear & Greed Index remains in “fear” territory, meaning market sentiment is still fragile.
Key Observations from the Chart
- Rejected at key resistance – The price failed to break above the 34-day EMA and upper channel line, showing sellers are still in control.
- Possible higher low? – As long as Bitcoin holds above the $77K-$78K zone, this could be a corrective wave before another push higher.
- RSI remains weak – While there was a bullish divergence earlier in March, RSI is still below 50, signaling that momentum hasn’t fully shifted bullish.
- MACD flattening out – The MACD lines are close to neutral, meaning the market is indecisive.
Bullish Scenario: Higher Low Before Breakout
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If Bitcoin finds support above $80K-$79K and bounces, it would confirm a higher low, keeping the recovery structure intact.
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A strong push above $86K and the 34 EMA would be a major bullish confirmation, opening the door for a break out of the red channel and a run toward $91.5K resistance.
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This would likely improve sentiment, potentially shifting the market out of fear.
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to New Lows
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If Bitcoin loses $79K-$76K, it would confirm that this move was just a corrective wave before continuation of the larger downtrend.
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Next support levels: $71.6K, then $69K, where previous buying interest was seen.
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RSI breaking below 40 would be a sign of further downside pressure.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is once more at a make-or-break moment. If bulls step in soon, we could see a higher low and a strong recovery toward $91K+. However, if weakness continues and key support levels fail, a new leg lower could be ahead. The next few days will be crucial in deciding Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
Will buyers defend this level, or is more downside ahead?
