Bitcoin dominance has slipped back below the 60% mark, rekindling hopes that an altcoin season may be just around the corner.
Bitcoin dominance measures how much market share Bitcoin holds relative to the entire cryptocurrency market. It is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies. When dominance rises, it suggests that capital is flowing disproportionately into Bitcoin. When it declines, however, capital is rotating into altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and smaller-cap projects.
Over recent weeks, this metric has been sliding lower again, largely due to strong relative performance from Ethereum and other major altcoins. As a result, speculation is mounting that a significant altcoin cycle could be on the horizon.
What the Chart is Signaling
Looking at the Bitcoin dominance chart, the recent decline is noteworthy.
Dominance has dropped below both the 21-day and 34-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The last time this happened was briefly in late 2024, after which Bitcoin quickly regained strength. However, this time the breakdown looks more sustained, and several technical signals point toward further weakness.
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Impending “Dead Cross”: The 21 EMA is on track to cross below the 34 EMA (red circle on the chart). This would mark a so-called “dead cross,” historically associated with bearish momentum. The opposite, a “golden cross”, occurred in early 2023 and led to a prolonged period where Bitcoin significantly outperformed altcoins.
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Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen below the 40 level, indicating momentum weakness. A declining RSI suggests that buyers are losing control, opening the door for continued downside.
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MACD Momentum: The MACD has slipped beneath the zero line, entering negative territory for the first time in months. This is generally viewed as a bearish sign and adds weight to the argument for a sustained drop in dominance.
Together, these indicators suggest that Bitcoin could lose further ground relative to altcoins in the months ahead.
Coinbase’s Take on Altseason
Even institutional players are beginning to take the possibility of an altcoin season seriously. According to David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional:
“We believe current market conditions are setting up for a potential full-scale altcoin season heading into September.”
Coinbase defines an altseason as a period in which at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day window. If this definition holds true, we may be entering one of those rare windows where altcoins significantly outpace the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
What Happens During Altcoin Seasons?
Altcoin seasons are typically periods of explosive gains for alternative cryptocurrencies. They often start with Ethereum (ETH) and other large-cap assets like Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), or BNB. Once confidence builds, momentum tends to spill over into mid-cap and eventually even small-cap tokens.
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Large Caps Lead: Ethereum, for example, has already been gaining ground on Bitcoin in recent weeks, thanks in part to strong activity in decentralized finance (DeFi), Ethereum treasury companies and renewed optimism around Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solutions.
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Speculative Frenzy: Once retail investors notice the shift, smaller tokens, sometimes with little more than a whitepaper, can see parabolic price moves. These stages of altseasons are often marked by euphoria, high trading volumes and soaring social media interest.
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Volatile Aftermath: Historically, altcoin seasons have been short-lived. Prices can rise sharply in a matter of weeks or months, but corrections tend to be equally dramatic. The crash following the euphoric alt rally in spring 2021 serves as a stark reminder of how quickly fortunes can reverse.
Broader Market Context
It’s worth considering the macro and structural factors driving this potential shift in market leadership:
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Bitcoin ETFs Have Stabilized Flows
The launch of U.S.-approved spot Bitcoin ETFs brought significant institutional money into Bitcoin earlier in 2025. However, with much of that demand already absorbed, investors may now be looking for higher returns elsewhere in the crypto market. -
Ethereum’s Growing Institutional Role
Ethereum continues to cement its place as the “settlement layer” of the decentralized economy. Developments in tokenized assets, DeFi, and staking make it a strong candidate to attract institutional capital seeking yield. -
Altcoin Narratives
Cycles in crypto are often narrative-driven. In 2025, buzzwords like “Real World Assets (RWA),” “DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure),” and AI-related blockchain projects are capturing market attention, potentially fueling speculative rallies outside Bitcoin. -
Retail Participation Returning
With crypto prices rebounding across the board this year, retail investors are cautiously re-entering the market. Historically, retail enthusiasm has been the final push that drives altseasons into euphoric territory.
Risks and Final Thoughts
While the technical and fundamental backdrop supports the possibility of an altcoin season, investors should be cautious. Altseasons have historically been high-risk, high-reward events. Early participants can see outsized gains, but latecomers often bear the brunt of violent corrections.
Investors may want to:
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Diversify across altcoins rather than chasing the latest “meme coin.”
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Keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance charts for confirmation of the trend.
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Use risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders or scaling out of positions.
Ultimately, if Bitcoin dominance continues to weaken, we may indeed be on the verge of a genuine altcoin season in 2025. But as history has shown, the ride will likely be fast, furious, and volatile.
